Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.016319 0.018483 0.020847 0.023622 0.026794 0.030313 0.034518
2024-10-27 0.012336 0.015133 0.018456 0.022706 0.028017 0.034458 0.042900
2024-11-03 0.010870 0.014069 0.018091 0.023545 0.030789 0.040138 0.053209
2024-11-10 0.009769 0.013206 0.017733 0.024174 0.033172 0.045399 0.063450
2024-11-17 0.008908 0.012502 0.017428 0.024733 0.035399 0.050564 0.074053
2024-11-24 0.007956 0.011535 0.016613 0.024422 0.036274 0.053814 0.082163
2024-12-01 0.007195 0.010743 0.015937 0.024195 0.037178 0.057112 0.090627
2024-12-08 0.006562 0.010065 0.015345 0.023999 0.038059 0.060399 0.099368
2024-12-15 0.006202 0.009762 0.015279 0.024594 0.040216 0.065879 0.112289
2024-12-22 0.005708 0.009196 0.014739 0.024350 0.040944 0.069042 0.121566
2024-12-29 0.005479 0.009035 0.014829 0.025149 0.043489 0.075513 0.137411
2025-01-05 0.004977 0.008372 0.014025 0.024330 0.043111 0.076792 0.143831
2025-01-12 0.004595 0.007890 0.013501 0.023976 0.043573 0.079706 0.153860
2025-01-19 0.004165 0.007290 0.012722 0.023092 0.042974 0.080600 0.160076
2025-01-26 0.004044 0.007225 0.012880 0.023942 0.045724 0.088141 0.180618
2025-02-02 0.003900 0.007106 0.012928 0.024583 0.048125 0.095237 0.201128
2025-02-09 0.003758 0.006976 0.012942 0.025153 0.050430 0.102375 0.222638
2025-02-16 0.003516 0.006638 0.012530 0.024836 0.050881 0.105696 0.236059
2025-02-23 0.003306 0.006343 0.012178 0.024605 0.051479 0.109381 0.250764
2025-03-02 0.003116 0.006074 0.011857 0.024406 0.052122 0.113217 0.266309
2025-03-09 0.003027 0.005999 0.011915 0.025011 0.054590 0.121391 0.293454
2025-03-16 0.002858 0.005747 0.011592 0.024763 0.055108 0.125144 0.310059
2025-03-23 0.002802 0.005725 0.011745 0.025576 0.058146 0.135136 0.344043